NBA Miner’s Prediction Success
On 23th December 2014, we started making daily predictions for winner of each NBA game and we published them on our prediction page.
Our winner prediction algorithm is based on multiple statistical forecasting methods whose major parameters are:
- Teams’ winning percentage
- Teams’ score margin
- Teams’ pace
- Teams’ recent form
- Teams’ opponents strength in previous games
- Teams’ fatigue based on a resting day counts and back-to-back game types
All these factors are calculated separately for both home and away games and evaluated accordingly.
And now, 2014-15 NBA regular season is over, so we are shutting down our prediction page until next NBA regular season begins. But before that, let’s look at how successful we were.
We published predictions for 815 NBA games; and 532 of them were correct. Our overall prediction success rate is 65.3%.
Time Based Results
You can see below its distribution according to time: monthly and weekly.
It is pretty normal that by time the predictions become more accurate, because it is a data driven statistical forecasting algorithm and number of data is crucial for its accuracy. Yet, February (week 6 and 8) results are suspicious. It is maybe due to bad luck and some games concluded with big surprise there. But starting with 1st of March, we see that our predictions were highly satisfactory with over 70% prediction success.
Risk Category Based Results
While making predictions, we also separated games according to risk level. We divided it 5: low, low to medium, medium, medium to high and high risk categories. Again, for risk level we only used statistics, nor bet rates neither our game difficulty perception. Here are the results according to these risk categories:
Majority of games (39.0%) are in the low risk category where we predicted correctly with a rate of 76.7%. But higher risk level means lower prediction success rate, thus for medium to high levels the rate drops around 55%.
Adding the time factor into the table, our results are:
Especially, 91.3% of correct prediction (42 of 46 games) in April for low risk category games is exceptional.
Team Based Results
Finally let’s look at which teams were more reliable when we had predicted it as the probable winner of that game.
56 times, we predicted Golden State Warriors would be the winner and in 44 of them that prediction became true. This means 78.5% success rate and it makes GSW as of our most reliable team. On the other hand, our algorithm never predicted New York Knicks as the probable winner that in fact is enough to prove how reliable are our predictions.